Ever smaller and ever longer when it comes to long-range capability. That is the trend in aircraft construction and operator demand. As evidenced by the Airbus A321XLR that took off on its first flight last Thursday in Hamburg. The narrow-body twinjet is able fly up to 8,700 km nonstop (4,700nm), and burn 30% less fuel per seat compared to previous generation aircraft. With jetliners like the A321XLR coming to market and its potential rival, the future Boeing “New Midsize Airplane” (NMA), international aviation will become a completely new ballgame.
Spotters, gazing at airplanes landing or taking off at Heathrow, Paris CDG, or Frankfurt, know this uncomfortable feeling. After an hour, at the most, their ears are ringing from the noise
emitted by the jetliners - even those equipped with the most technically-advanced turbines. It is no different for their colleagues watching aircraft coming and going at New York JFK, Narita, or
Pudong. “These huge hubs are reaching their capacity limits, including their social acceptance, or have already exceeded both,” notes Heinrich Großbongardt. The aviation expert was
responsible for Boeing’s press relations in central Europe for many years, and is currently involved in numerous aeronautics projects in Seattle, Toulouse, Hamburg, and Leipzig.
Change is in the air
His main points: The hub and spoke system, very successfully deployed and practiced over decades, is slowly fading out. In his opinion, various indications point to a declining role of the super
hubs: The main reason is the newly built, smaller and more powerful jetliners, which are capable of transporting passengers and, in future, cargo shipments nonstop over long distances, point to
point, bypassing hubs and thus avoiding time losses. As for travelers, they can enjoy a comfortable flight on long transatlantic or transpacific routes, despite smaller cabin layouts of the
Airbus 321XLR or future Boeing NMA compared to the big machines. Airbus demonstrated this with its new cabin concepts presented at the Aircraft Interiors Expo air show in Hamburg, last week.
The decentralization of commercial aviation is already visible in European regional traffic, where airlines are increasingly offering direct flights, and avoiding hubs.
Diversified freight flows
For air freight, this means that traditional supply chains will be thinned out, with consignments moving away from (over-)crowded super hubs to secondary airports, provided the chosen airdromes
offer a flight program tailored to the market needs. “In the future, so-called secondary hubs, and also regional airports, will become an increasingly important address for air freight. In
close combination with long-haul flight offerings, they might become a game changer,” forecasts Mr. Grossbongardt.
This will have consequences for the consolidation policy of the forwarders, be it in AMS, FRA, CDG, or elsewhere. “Take the automotive industry,” he illustrates. “Volkswagen runs
production sites in over 100 countries, among them, factories in Puebla, Mexico, and Chattanooga, Tennessee. To supply parts and tools directly to these destinations, regular flights from Hanover
or Hamburg, the closest airports to its headquarters in Wolfsburg, would make a lot of sense instead of trucking the goods to the more distant AMS, FRA, or CDG first, for consolidation reasons,
which consumes time and ups greenhouse gas emissions.”
Small is innovative
According to the expert, the diversification of freight flows will commence with the market entry of smaller freighters and develop in waves from there. As an example, he points to the hybrid
plane ERA, the Toulouse-based newcomer, Aura Aero, is currently developing. The passenger version is to be equipped with 19 seats, while the freighter variant, developed in parallel, can
accommodate up to 5 tons, flying the goods over 1,800 km, the manufacturer states. Because of its 6 electric fans, which are significantly lighter than traditional engines, the weight saving
(-40%) is remarkable compared to current models in this class. ERA takes off purely powered by electricity, which lowers the noise emissions significantly, hence, ups the acceptance from people
living in the vicinity of airports. A social and increasingly political aspect that should not be underestimated.
Another technical benefit is that the batteries can be exchanged for new and more powerful devices once they are available, which should further increase the lifecycle and range of the hybrids.
This aircraft, whose first flight is planned for 2026, following flight tests and licensing procedures, is bad news for the hub & spoke system, but good news for point-point transports, Mr.
Grossbongardt forecasts.
The air freight landscape broadens
In a nutshell, groundbreaking innovations tend to occur in the smaller commercial aircraft segment first, spreading upwards from there. Take ZeroAvia, a hydrogen-electric powered 19-seater
offering a range of 300 nautical miles. It is scheduled to conduct its maiden flight in 2024, provided the manufacturer succeeds in getting the 600kW hydrogen-electric powertrains certified by
then. After this, an entire family is scheduled to follow step by step, including a delta-winged, hydrogen-powered, 200+ seater that should take to the air in 2040.
Aircraft like the types mentioned above, including models such as the A321XLR, put the hub + spoke system to the test. They enable nonstop traffic, bypassing major airports. For the air freight
supply chain, this brings new challenges, but above all eliminates long transit times caused by today's consolidation regime at big, crowded hubs.
Heiner Siegmund
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