Exclusive - LH Cargo considers prolonging lifespan of MD-11Fs

The day for the farewell of the last MD-11F belonging to Lufthansa Cargo’s fleet was already determined: December 31, 2020. However, there are mounting indications that the McDonnel Douglas produced aircraft’s exit might be pushed back.

For how long - if months or even more - is a matter of speculation. LH Cargo keeps tight lipped when asked about the fate of their remaining sub-fleet of 6 MD-11Fs, down from a total of 18 units years ago. A company speaker refused to comment but conversely did not explicitly deny assumptions either that the freighters might be operated beyond 1 January next year.
 
Freighters are becoming flying banks
The speculations about the aircraft’s fate were fueled by latest traffic data, documenting a considerable gap between transport demand and supply, driving rates up and hugely benefitting cargo carriers. “Airlines with freighters in their fleets can expect high capacity utilization in the next 3 to 4 years and healthy margins,” predicted Research Analyst Daniel Roeska of asset management company Sanford C. Bernstein at an event organized and orchestrated last Wednesday (26AUG20) by Frankfurt’s Air Cargo Community. Deliveries and P2F conversions will not fully compensate the lack of belly-hold capacity short-term specifically on long haul routes caused by corona-driven travel restrictions, he stated.
 
Widening gap between demand and supply
The bottleneck in main deck capacity could become dramatic once Covid-19 vaccines are available, presumably in Q1, 2021, which must then be shipped as quickly as possible from production sites to their destinations, i.e. by air freight. Experts estimate that this will require capacities of between 8,000 to 12,000 Boeing 747 freighters.  
Given these figures an enormous shortage of uplift capacity is becoming apparent in the coming months since there are only roughly 2,000 freighter aircraft from different manufacturers in commercial operation – globally.
Seen from this angle, keeping the MD-11Fs in their fleet until demand drops down again would make a lot of sense for LH Cargo. Recognizing the benefits is not rocket science when looking at the exceptionally low fuel prices coupled with high freight rates, which are likely to even increase once a Covid-19 vaccine becomes available and mass shipping begins.